Gold prices have been a topic of interest for investors and traders alike, with recent developments causing some volatility in the market. As of June 15, 2026, the question on everyone's mind is whether the upside in gold prices will continue. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., offers some insights.
Modi highlights that gold prices have been trading in a broad range, with a recent reversal towards the end of the previous week. Despite this, prices remain below the 20-day moving average, indicating ongoing pressure on the broader trend. The recovery is yet to confirm a meaningful reversal, and sustained buying interest is needed for momentum to improve.
On the upside, the immediate resistance zone is set at ₹155,000–156,000, with a stronger hurdle near ₹160,000–162,000. This coincides with the upper Bollinger Band. A decisive close above ₹156,000 could boost sentiment and open the door for a move towards ₹160,000 and higher levels. However, failure to reclaim this zone may attract fresh selling pressure.
On the downside, ₹150,000 remains a crucial support level, with the lower Bollinger Band near ₹148,300 acting as the next major support. A breakdown below ₹148,000 could accelerate bearish momentum and expose ₹145,000–142,000 levels.
The broader structure remains cautious, with prices attempting to stabilize after a prolonged correction. Gold prices witnessed a highly volatile week, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and softer inflation expectations. The interim peace framework between the US and Iran, aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifted the US blockade and increased oil supplies, reducing energy-driven inflation concerns.
Economic data also played a role in market volatility. US CPI and PPI readings were softer than expected, indicating that inflationary pressures may be moderating despite elevated energy prices. This initially boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could adopt a less aggressive policy stance, leading to declines in Treasury yields and the US dollar, both of which supported gold prices.
However, the US non-farm payrolls report surprised on the upside, with the US economy adding 172,000 jobs in May, significantly above market expectations. This stronger labor market data reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer, limiting downside risks to inflation and preventing a stronger rally in gold.
The market is now pricing around a 49% probability of a rate hike by December, compared to nearly 70% a week earlier. The focus this week will be on the Federal Reserve policy meeting, updated economic projections, and policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and Bank of England.
In conclusion, gold prices have been experiencing volatility, with various factors influencing the market. While geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations have provided support, the Federal Reserve's policy stance and labor market data have also played a significant role. Investors and traders should carefully consider these factors when making investment decisions.
